Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,739$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(401 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $197$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(40.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 79.7)}}\) (asimptote \(190.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,771$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,957$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(120.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,859.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,859.1\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,013$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,957.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,957.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,844$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $276,338$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,025.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(245,025.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,534$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,707.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,707.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,194$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,244,970$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,186,292.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,186,292.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $188,538$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,033.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 70.5)}}\) (asimptote \(171,033.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,754,245$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $346,513$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306,401.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(306,401.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,638$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,680.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,680.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $303,069$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,985$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,800.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(85,800.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,835$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,722.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,722.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,150$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $251,058$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(8.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(109.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{206,148.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(206,148.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,329$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,015.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,015.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,159$ on 2020-09-05