Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,739$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(401 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $197$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(40.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 79.7)}}\) (asimptote \(190.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,771$ on 2020-09-05

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,957$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(120.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,859.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,859.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,013$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,957.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,957.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,844$ on 2020-09-05

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $276,338$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,025.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(245,025.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,534$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,707.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,707.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,194$ on 2020-09-05

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,244,970$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,186,292.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,186,292.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $188,538$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,033.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 70.5)}}\) (asimptote \(171,033.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,754,245$ on 2020-09-05

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $346,513$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306,401.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(306,401.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,638$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,680.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,680.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $303,069$ on 2020-09-05

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,985$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,800.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(85,800.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,835$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,722.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,722.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,150$ on 2020-09-05

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $251,058$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(8.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(109.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{206,148.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(206,148.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,329$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,015.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,015.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,159$ on 2020-09-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 100%
China recovered 99%
Singapore recovered 97%
Iceland recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 92%
Ghana recovered 91%
Mauritania recovered 89%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 83%
Uzbekistan recovered 77%
Germany recovered 75%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 72%
Egypt recovered 69%
Saudi Arabia recovered 68%
Armenia recovered 68%
Guatemala recovered 67%
Afghanistan recovered 66%
Australia recovered 66%
South Africa recovered 65%
Yemen recovered 63%
Vietnam recovered 57%
Nigeria recovered 52%
Japan recovered 48%
North Macedonia recovered 47%
Malta recovered 43%
Russia recovered 33%
Bolivia recovered 26%
Colombia recovered 23%
Malawi recovered 19%
El Salvador recovered 16%
Bangladesh recovered 13%
Albania recovered 5%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $72,663$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,414.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 73.5)}}\) (asimptote \(69,414.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $705$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(102 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{721.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(721.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $115$ on 2020-09-05

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,025$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.25 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,754.0}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(84,754.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,728$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(-2.46 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,683.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,683.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $460$ on 2020-09-05

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,982$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(-1.42 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,934.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 114.8)}}\) (asimptote \(53,934.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(6.1 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $688$ on 2020-09-05

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,136$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,870.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,870.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $88$ on 2020-09-05